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Prediction for CME (2023-03-20T02:41:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-03-20T02:41Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24313/-1
CME Note: Faint, wide CME to SW in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery during STEREO A data gap and campaign with limited imagery. Likely associated with a broad area of coronal restructuring, coronal dimming, destabilization, and filament eruptions seen in SDO 193, 304 starting ~2023-03-20T01:53Z between S10 to S30, W05 to W30. Arrival may be associated with CME 2023-03-20T14:42Z. From Tarik Mohammad, LASSOS: start of sheath is ~2023-03-23T05Z - enhancements in total magnetic field/density. Background solar wind is quite different from normal levels with higher density (normal density around 5/cc) and speed (normal speed around 350-400 km/s). This can be a reason there is no shock. Start of the magnetic flux rope ~13:30Z coincides with enhancement in total field and drop in density. 2023-03-24T06:50Z is the possible end time based on an increase in temperature beyond this point and the field components becoming less coherent.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-03-23T09:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-03-23T02:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.5
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: 53.38 hour(s)
Difference: 7.17 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-03-21T03:47Z

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